CIPHER
CIPHER

AI & EM capital flows — November 2025

Date: 01-11-2025

Filter-bubble risk: 8% (≤10%)

Summary

  • Hyperscale power constraints shifting workloads; microgrids rising.
  • Export-controls tightening on select AI components; vendor substitution in play.
  • EM FX volatility impacting procurement timelines; renegotiation windows widening.
  • Permit bottlenecks create siting arbitrage across APAC/EU sub-regions.
  • OEM lead-times improving marginally but remain a gating factor for 2026 capacity.

Actions

  1. Map interconnect queues vs PPA optionality; advance microgrid scenarios.
  2. Refresh sanctions/exposure lists and adjacency risk; log deltas.
  3. Lock price-validity windows in contracts; phase deliveries.

Sources & Evidence